Tadej Pogačar is a favorite for Milan-San Remo however how can the Slovenian win La Classicissima on Saturday? It’s the query that’s absolutely retaining the UAE Crew Emirates directeur sportif awake at night time this week and maybe even perturbing Pogačar himself.
Pogačar is one, if not ‘the’ strongest and most aggressive rider within the sport as he confirmed together with his 80km solo assault to win Strade Bianche. Nonetheless, he isn’t the quickest finisher in a dash, so he wants a rigorously crafted and completely executed tactical plan if he’s to win on Saturday.
In opposition to the likes of Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Christophe Laporte (Visma-Lease a Bike) and Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), the Slovenian has little probability in a dash end within the By way of Roma.
Pogačar wants a more durable, extra aggressive race, maybe beginning with an assault on the Cipressa with a small group or no less than a break up within the peloton, earlier than attacking once more on the Poggio and driving to a solo victory. It is a simple plan to place in phrases however a lot more durable to execute out on the highway with so many rivals and with so many variables.
“I am excited for Milan-San Remo. The end is just not too removed from the place I stay in Monaco so I do know the final a part of the race and the ultimate climbs fairly effectively,” he stated when UAE Crew Emirates named their squad for the race, maybe hinting at some form of attacking race technique.
“As we have seen earlier than, this race is among the most troublesome to win and might finish in lots of outcomes. For positive we are going to make a plan and put ourselves in the most effective place doable. It is a race we would dearly like to win.”
The UAE Crew Emirates line-up additionally contains Alessandro Covi, Marc Hirschi, Brandon McNulty, Domen Novak, Diego Ulissi and Tim Wellens, indicating the group is able to create a tough race and arrange Pogačar.
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The various methods to win Milan-San Remo
This yr’s Milan-San Remo is the one hundred and fifteenth version of the Italian race, with lots of the greatest riders within the historical past of the game on the lengthy Roll of Honour. Every received the race in their very own manner, every a slight variation on the ten alternative ways to win Milan-San Remo highlighted by a particular Cyclingnews function.
The Poggio attackers seem to now dominate and have stolen the limelight from the sprinters, with Arnaud Démare the final to win from an enormous group in 2016. However something can occur in probably the most thrilling 30 km of racing of the season, simply ask Matej Mohorič. He attacked on the descent of the Poggio in 2021, utilizing a dropper seatpost to go away from his rivals.
The 2024 race appears set to be a basic version, with heat, spring-like climate and solely a slight breeze on the coast forecast. Saturday is not going to be just like the 2014 race when snow left the riders freezing chilly and compelled them to cowl a part of the race of their group buses.
This yr’s race begins in Pavia, 30 km south of central Milan however nonetheless covers 288 km (plus a 5.7 km neutralised switch out of the town), with a trip east to San Zenone al Po, the birthplace of legendary Italian sports activities journalist Gianni Brera.
The remainder of the race is identical as custom, with the lengthy however gradual Passo del Turchino beginning after 114 km on the Lombardy plains.
After the quickest descent to the Ligurian coast west of Genoa, the riders face an extra 90km of flat, quick roads to the beginning of the brief Capi coastal climbs. The Cipressa begins after 260 km of racing, with simply 27 to race till the By way of Roma end in central San Remo.
The Cipressa climb winds up into the olive groves for five.6km lengthy from San Lorenzo al Mare, at a median gradient of 4.1%. The ultimate kilometre of the Cipressa is on a false flat till the squeeze previous the chapel and the descent to the coast.
There are simply 13 kilometres between the highest of the Cipressa to the beginning of the Poggio climb, which is simply 10km from the end.
The enduring Poggio is 3.6 km lengthy at a median of three.7% however twists and turns up the hillside between the San Remo greenhouse stuffed with flowers.
The hairpins provide locations to speed up away and positioning is decisive earlier than the primary assaults come within the ultimate two kilometres of the climb.
Riders as soon as jumped away early, into the slipstream of the numerous photographers’ motorbikes. Now the variety of motorbikes has been decreased and so the steepest level at 8%, with a kilometre to the summit, and simply over six kilometres to the end, is the most effective level to assault.
Pogačar cannot repeat his errors of 2023
Final yr Tim Wellens leadout Pogačar right here after which the Slovenian attacked with a double surge. He was joined by Mathieu van der Poel, Filippa Ganna and Wout van Aert. Then, Van de Poel surged away after Pogačar generously dragged the group clear, and stayed away on the descent to win alone within the By way of Roma. Ganna beat Pogačar and Van Aert within the dash for second.
Pogačar is aware of he might want to make use of a distinct, much less beneficiant tactic if he’s to win this yr’s Milan-San Remo. However which one fits his skill and abilities the most effective? Which tactic provides him the most effective chase of victory if he isn’t quick sufficient to attend for a small-group dash end?
An assault on the Passo del Turchino appears inconceivable in modern-day biking. Pogačar maybe wants to harm or distance his rivals on the Cipressa however a solo assault would have little probability of staying away with so many domestiques nonetheless within the peloton prepared to guide the chase alongside the coast at 60km/h.
Pogačar would wish to go clear with a choose, high quality group of attackers on the Cipressa, who share his ambitions and braveness and are keen to work with him.
The final time an assault on Cipressa stayed away was in 1996 when Gabriele Colombo and Alexander Gontchenkov attacked and have been joined on the descent by Max Sciandri and Michele Coppolillo. They labored collectively because the chase hesitated they usually managed to remain away, with Colombo attacking after the Poggio to win alone.
Gianni Bugno received alone over the Cipressa after crosswinds break up the peloton however that was initially of the 90s when he went on to guide the Giro d’Italia from begin to end. Marco Pantani made a flamboyant solo assault on the Cipressa in 1999 and different riders have tried to emulate him since then however the flat highway alongside the coast to the Poggio has all the time led to a regrouping.
Might Pogačar by some means rewrite the fashionable Milan-San Remo script?
“If Pogačar goes arduous on the Cipressa, few riders have the ability to go together with him. He is like Bugno, he can win the Tour de France but additionally the Tour of Flanders,” Sciandri informed Cyclingnews.
‘Nonetheless, even he could be loopy to go away alone on Cipressa, I believe even he is aware of that. But when a small group types round him prefer it did in 1996, then they may, in idea, keep away. All of it is dependent upon the combo of the riders, if individuals will work with Pogačar, the wind path on the coast, and which groups haven’t got riders within the transfer and are keen to chase earlier than the Poggio.”
Pogačar may attempt to assault on the Cipressa however will want the intelligence to ease up if it is not a successful transfer. Then he must change to Plan B, attempt to recuperate from his effort and watch for the Poggio.
Nonetheless, Pogačar shall be simply one in all a number of doable attackers over the ultimate climb that overlooks San Remo and so usually decides the race.
Van der Poel, Girmay, Pedersen, Ganna, Laporte, Mohorič, Alberto Bettiol, Toms Skujiņš, Michael Matthews and Tom Pidcock, may have the ability to stick with Pogačar on the Poggio. Some quick finishers like Jonathan Milan, Corbin Sturdy, Olav Kooij, and Jasper Philipsen may be shut if the attackers hesitate on the slopes and the descent of the Poggio.
Pogačar’s race might be over if a giant group goes excessive of the Poggio inside a number of seconds. Then the quick finishers would have the higher hand.
“Pogačar has to have a day of grace like Vincenzo Nibali did in 2017, when he attacked excessive of the Poggio and held off the chasers,” Alessandro Petacchi, who received Milan-San Remo in 2005 with an outstanding dash, just lately informed BiciPro.
“The wind on the coast shall be a key ingredient like all the time. If it is a headwind, then it is simple to remain on the wheels on the Cipressa. If there is not any wind then there might be extra of a range. Pogačar’s greatest drawback shall be Mathieu van der Poel. How does he eliminate a man like that?”
Van der Poel punished Pogačar’s beneficiant work on the Poggio final yr, sitting in his slipstream earlier than then powering previous him within the ultimate metres of the climb.
“Pogačar was a bit presumptuous final yr. If there are riders as sturdy as you, you may’t suppose you may drop them from the entrance, it’s important to race smarter,” former Classics winner Michele Bartoli informed BiciPro.
“If Pogačar desires to win this yr’s Milan-San Remo, he wants his group to make it a tough race, particularly on the Cipressa, then make one huge assault on the steepest a part of the Poggio and go clear alone. That is how he can get away and win.”
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